A 9-3 record would give some SEC teams a chance at playoff qualification, but 10-2 is a golden ticket. Connelly’s latest formula gives 10 SEC teams a 5% chance or better of finishing at least 10-2. Strictly speaking, these percentages do not represent the chance that a team will make the playoff — only its chance of finishing 10-2 or better.

Even with the expanded format, a lot has to go right for teams to punch their tickets to the College Football Playoff. One factor can make or break a postseason push, like the Miami defense did last season when the Hurricanes fell just short of their playoff debut.